For the Miami Heat, this season hasn’t gone as hoped as injuries, fatigue and regression from key players has dulled their chances of a return to the Eastern Conference finals.
But if the Heat have been anything this season, they’ve been resilient. Miami enters the All-Star break as the only team in the league with a winning record that does not have a positive point-differential (a perfectly representative 0.0). They lead the NBA in clutch games played and wins in those close-game situations. In the eyes of Heat players, there is optimism that their best basketball lies on the other side of a much-needed break.
“We got 23 [games] to go to get to where we want to get to,” Jimmy Butler said. “It’s all about being healthy, which this break will do for us.”
“We’ve been down a lot of guys most of the season,” Caleb Martin said. “So it will be good to get everybody fresh from the jump.”
Expected to return soon after the break are Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo, Omer Yurtseven, Nikola Jovic and Kyle Lowry (more on that situation later). Butler and Martin could use some time off to let their bodies recuperate.
The Heat will also make some decisions regarding bought-out free agents in the coming days. There could be half-a-dozen reinforcements on the way for Miami’s stretch run into the playoffs.
“I like having the sprint right after All-Star break,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “The free agent signings will be done shortly after the break. I want to know who my team is going into that last stretch.”
The Heat will hope to carry over the league’s fifth-rated defense and perseverance forged in their close games. They’ll also hope to address some of the issues that have held back what was a Finals contender less than a year ago.
Butler probably said it best: “We’re going to really have to show who we’re made of and who we are as a group.”
Let’s take a look at the key storylines and trends facing the Heat after the All-Star break.
The Heat haven’t added a veteran rotation player in eight months – a relative eternity in NBA terms. There’s no staying put in the NBA, only moving back or forward. The Heat, after having the best record in the East last season, have slipped to seventh entering the All-Star break at 32-27.
After failing to make an addition at the trade deadline, the buyout market may offer a reprieve. Kevin Love is reportedly negotiating a buyout with the Cavaliers and the Heat are among his expected suitors. Having fallen out of the rotation in Cleveland, Love could find a regular role in Miami.
A true big man who can space the floor, rebound and participate in Miami’s ball-movement offense, Love could slot in right away as a reliable backup center behind Bam Adebayo and could play next to Bam in certain alignments.
If the Heat do sign Love, they’d still have another roster spot available. Could that go to Russell Westbrook? The Heat are reportedly doing their homework on Westbrook, who is still under contract with the Jazz. Perhaps they could sign Serge Ibaka to provide even more depth in the frontcourt. John Wall is available. Old friend Goran Dragic could be too, if Westbrook ends up in Chicago.
Hovering over all of this is the Kyle Lowry situation. Lowry is expected to miss the rest of the month with a knee injury, and could miss more time after.
There’s rampant speculation that the relationship between the Heat and Lowry has soured in part due to Lowry’s poor play this season and the Heat openly shopping him before the deadline.
If Lowry isn’t available to the team going forward, finding another experienced point guard could become a priority.
It could also represent the end of the Lowry era in Miami.
Of Miami’s 23 remaining games, 12 are at home and 11 are on the road. The Heat are much better at home (19-10) than on the road (13-17). If they win at that clip, it’s reasonable to expect the Heat to go 12-11 or 13-10 to close the season.
That would give the Heat 44 or 45 wins. At best, that should be enough to compete for the sixth seed and avoid the play-in tournament. At worst, it would mean an appearance in the play-in tournament.
Of course, the Heat could out-perform that projection. After starting the season 11-14, the Heat won 21 of 32 before dropping their last two games before the break. If they make a key addition or two and stay healthy, another run could propel the Heat up the standings.
The Heat are currently a half game behind the Knicks for the No. 6 seed and 2.5 games behind the rebuilding Nets for No. 5. They are five games back of the No. 4 seed Cavs, and catching them at this point does not seem feasible.
FiveThirtyEight.com projects that Miami will finish fifth at 45-37, good enough to avoid the play-in and earn a first-round matchup against the Cavs.