Analyst Reveals Troubling Stat About Packers’ 4th Quarter Defense.

An NFL analyst recently spotlighted a glaring weakness in the Green Bay Packers’ defense — the team’s inability to maintain dominance in the fourth quarter. According to Daire Carragher, the Packers rank first in point differential in the first quarter, yet are 25th in point differential in the fourth quarter. ([The Cold Wire][1]) In other words: they start strong, but often fade late.

The Stat That Stings

Through the first four games of the 2025 season, Green Bay has built leads early, often outplaying opponents in the opening quarter. But when it comes to closing out games, the defense has been unable to sustain its edge. As of that point:

That gap is both stark and troubling. It suggests that the Packers’ defense may be “front‑loaded” — effective early on, but vulnerable as games progress. Carragher’s stat raises red flags about stamina, execution, adjustments, and coaching in late-game scenarios.

In the NFL, games are often decided in the final minutes. A defense that surrenders momentum late is a liability. Here are some implications:

Game management and situational defense.

Holding a lead in the fourth quarter presents unique challenges: two-minute drills, hurry-up offense, quick strikes, and pressure on the secondary. If Green Bay can’t navigate those moments, leads become liabilities.

Physical wear and depth

Fatigue — physical and mental — may be a factor. A defense that can’t rotate effectively or loses edge late may be revealing depth deficiencies. Opponents may intentionally push into the late game, knowing the Packers tend to weaken.

Predictability and adjustments

Opposing coaches may game-plan around late-game weaknesses. If Green Bay shows a pattern of vulnerability in closing minutes, offenses may structure drives to exploit that window.

Impact on confidence and morale

Even when the offense performs, a defense that lets leads slip chips away at the team’s synergy and the trust of fans, media, and even players themselves.

Historical Context & Supporting Trends

This isn’t just a 2025 aberration. The narrative of Green Bay struggling late is not new:

In past seasons, the Packers have been criticized for “collapsing” in the stretch, particularly against strong run bears or balanced offenses.

Their run defense has been a chronic area of concern late in games, especially when opponents shift into grind-it-out mode.  In 2025, analysts already flagged inconsistent execution and mental errors — especially in pressure moments — as causes for concern.

So Carragher’s stat isn’t out of the blue; it crystallizes a long‑suspected trend with hard numbers.

What the Packers Must do.

To address this late-game weakness, Green Bay needs to:

Improve conditioning & rotation depth — ensure key defenders don’t burn out late.

Sharpen situational awareness — drills for red zone, two-minute defense, late‑game substitutions.

Adapt playcalling and adjustments — mixing coverages, showing different fronts to avoid predictability.

Prioritize mental toughness — instill confidence in defenders to close out, minimizing mistakes under fatigue.

If the Packers can’t fix their fourth-quarter defense, they may continue to lose games they’ve already nearly won — a fatal flaw for any contender.